PhilistineEars
yep, definite Lurker
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Pub Games: Statistical Analysis
I am one of the unfortunate souls that did not obtain a PubGames pre-order early on as I had too many things to do without the distraction of this Fable II tidbit. I've seen numerous complaints of PubGames being unfair (as in violating statistical theory) and all sorts of accusations. Since the random number generator is based off of an algorithm that was created, it could be flawed. Using statisitcs, we can compare the results to mathematical theory and test for statistical significance to determine if the Keystone game is fair or foul..
My aim here is to dissect PubGames using math and have discussions revolving around Statistical theory relating to PubGames. To start off, I used an algorithm I created a while back that can extract the probabilities of rolling dice. The algorithm works for three dice as the sheer number of outcomes is exponentially ridiculous not too long there after and is rather pointless. Below, is a list of outcomes with their statistical likelihood of occurring.
According to statistical theory, this is exactly what should happen over time. A normal curve will develop with the possibility of rolling a 10 or 11 being the most likely to occur in the long-run. This analysis can be taken further by calculating levels of significants for the outcomes that actually DO occur in real life. With enough data, I can pair the data set of what is occurring with what should actually occur and look to see if the results are statistically significant regarding H0:= True that the algorithm generating the random number sequence is, in fact, fair.
Certain considerations need to be made such as having a sufficiently large population
of data to work from as to not have skewed results. The bell curve is a graphical representation of the Law of Large Numbers. As n gets sufficiently large, the outcomes will begin to surround the converge on the expected value.
The sample mean given by taking the number of outcomes and dividing against all outcomes within the experiment as seen below....
Will approach the expected value for the given values set by the parameters as n approaches infinite....
Since I do not have PubGames yet, can someone give me the specifics of the Keystone game? I only know about the three dice and would like to understand the game so I can further develop my analysis.
Can't wait for Fable II!
--PhilE
I am one of the unfortunate souls that did not obtain a PubGames pre-order early on as I had too many things to do without the distraction of this Fable II tidbit. I've seen numerous complaints of PubGames being unfair (as in violating statistical theory) and all sorts of accusations. Since the random number generator is based off of an algorithm that was created, it could be flawed. Using statisitcs, we can compare the results to mathematical theory and test for statistical significance to determine if the Keystone game is fair or foul..
My aim here is to dissect PubGames using math and have discussions revolving around Statistical theory relating to PubGames. To start off, I used an algorithm I created a while back that can extract the probabilities of rolling dice. The algorithm works for three dice as the sheer number of outcomes is exponentially ridiculous not too long there after and is rather pointless. Below, is a list of outcomes with their statistical likelihood of occurring.
(Normal Distribution)
According to statistical theory, this is exactly what should happen over time. A normal curve will develop with the possibility of rolling a 10 or 11 being the most likely to occur in the long-run. This analysis can be taken further by calculating levels of significants for the outcomes that actually DO occur in real life. With enough data, I can pair the data set of what is occurring with what should actually occur and look to see if the results are statistically significant regarding H0:= True that the algorithm generating the random number sequence is, in fact, fair.
Certain considerations need to be made such as having a sufficiently large population
of data to work from as to not have skewed results. The bell curve is a graphical representation of the Law of Large Numbers. As n gets sufficiently large, the outcomes will begin to surround the converge on the expected value. The sample mean given by taking the number of outcomes and dividing against all outcomes within the experiment as seen below....
Will approach the expected value for the given values set by the parameters as n approaches infinite....
Since I do not have PubGames yet, can someone give me the specifics of the Keystone game? I only know about the three dice and would like to understand the game so I can further develop my analysis.
Can't wait for Fable II!
--PhilE
